A 2023 study from Associate 天美影视 of Geography research group that quantified the global economic fallout of the recurring climate pattern known as El Ni帽o has been recognized as one of the most important new findings in climate science.
The study is included among this year鈥檚 report, or 10NICS, a compendium of pivotal climate research from around the world during the past 18 months. The report highlights studies by more than 80 researchers from 45 countries that assess and project the catastrophic consequences of human-driven climate change on human health and safety, weather, ecosystems and natural processes, economies, and other areas.
The Dartmouth study,, is one of four papers constituting, which concerns the effect of global warming on large-scale ocean processes. Mankin, who is senior author of the study, conducted it with Christopher Callahan, the paper鈥檚 first author and then-Dartmouth doctoral candidate who received his PhD in 2023 from the . Callahan is now a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford.
鈥淭he key insight that Chris and I came to is that El Ni帽o is orders of magnitude more costly to the global economy than previously understood,鈥 says Mankin, the director of the at Dartmouth.
鈥淏ecause the hazards from El Ni帽o look a lot like the wider impacts of warming鈥攅xtreme heat, floods, droughts, and more severe storms鈥攖hat tells us that our economies are poorly adapted to the climate we have currently, let alone the one unfolding from global warming,鈥 Mankin says. 鈥淓l Ni帽o, I think, can serve as a test-bed for wider adaptation and resiliency investments in response to climate change.鈥
The 10NICS report is intended to drive international climate policy, particularly during the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as , being held in Azerbaijan next month. Representatives from countries worldwide will discuss鈥攁nd ideally agree to鈥攃oncrete steps nations can collectively take to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate鈥攁s well as adapt to鈥攖he effects of climate change. The international climate treaty known as the Paris Agreement was negotiated at COP21 held in Paris in 2015.
Callahan and Mankin spent two years examining global economic activity in the decades following the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ni帽o events and found a 鈥減ersistent signature鈥 of slowed economic growth more than five years later. They found that the global economy bled $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, respectively, in the half-decade after each El Ni帽o due to devastating floods, crop-killing droughts, plummeting fish populations, and an uptick in tropical diseases.
Using the Dartmouth model, 10NICS estimates that the recent 2023-24 El Ni帽o will cost the global economy $5.7 trillion by 2029.
The study was among the first to evaluate the long-term costs of El Ni帽o. El Ni帽o is the warm phase of the El Ni帽o-Southern Oscillation, the natural cycle of warm and cold temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ni帽o alters weather patterns worldwide and, in the United States, typically results in wetter, warmer winters for the West Coast and a milder hurricane season on the Atlantic seaboard.
A key focus of Mankin鈥檚 research is quantifying the financial repercussions of extreme weather caused by climate change鈥攁nd the potential liability of the polluters accelerating rising temperatures.
In 2022, he and Callahan reported that more severe heat waves cost the world an estimated $16 trillion from 1992 to 2013 due to the effects of high temperatures on human health, productivity, and agricultural output. An earlier paper they published assessed the economic damages individual countries have caused to others by their contributions to climate warming and provided a scientific framework for suing for restitution.
Recent research from Mankin鈥檚 group also has found that the U.S. Drought Monitor has not adapted to climate change, that seasonal snowpacks in most of the Northern Hemisphere have shrunk significantly since 1981, and that warmer temperatures are resulting in more home runs in Major League Baseball.
The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report debuted in 2017 ahead of COP23 in Bonn, Germany. It is a joint initiative of Future Earth, the Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme.
